The Citadel Poll

Voters in South Carolina Get Ready to Nominate New Leaders

June 2, 2026

A poll of 1,505 registered voters was released by The Citadel Poll one week before the June primary election. Results from the poll share what voters have in common and how they are revealing different interests ahead of the first open-seat election for Governor in South Carolina since 2010. During the dates of the survey (May 21 to May 31, 2026) a few events shaped how voters think about this upcoming election, notably the state’s special session on redistricting ended and the announcement of who President Donald Trump endorsed in the Republican primary.

In our analysis of 1,505 registered voters differences of plus or minus 3.2% (margin of sampling error) are statistically different. For specific elections, a sample of 600 likely Republican primary voters reports estimates that have a margin of sampling error of plus for minus 4.5%; and estimates from the 427 likely Democratic primary voters reports have larger margin of sampling error of (6.3%).

Support for Gas Tax Relief, Open Primaries, & Concern on Toll-Roads

As gas prices continue to stay close to $4.00 a gallon, there is bipartisan support for a short-term suspension of the state’s tax on gasoline with majorities backing from Democratic primary voters (56%) and Republican primary voters (63%). There is a clear correlation between this view and how people feel about their financial situation with 73% supporting a short-term tax suspension is they feel like they are struggling to make ends meet and 73% supporting it if they are just getting by.

The poll also found bipartisan support to continue open primaries in the state (62%). A plurality of likely Republican primary voters, 48% to 42%, support keeping party primaries compared a closed primary of registered party members.

At the end of the General Assembly’s session the restructuring of the transportation bill included a provision to allow local areas to add optional toll lanes to bypass traffic, otherwise known as “choice lanes.” Public’s strong opposition (40%) to adopting toll lanes in a local community did not vary by party (Democratic voters 40%; Republican voters 42%). A person’s current financial situation today has a small affect on this with those struggling to make ends meet opposing optional toll lanes 47% of the time, which is 9% higher than those who say they are living comfortably.

Sprint to the finish & likely run-off for the Republican race for Governor

In a crowded primary of voters who are running ads across the state and some of whom have served in elected office before, there is no clear frontrunner in the Republican primary for governor. Close to three in four Republican primary voters follow politics most of the time, one in five of those Republican voters who closely follow politics remain totally unsure about who they will vote for. The effects of the campaign are more pronounced if you pay attention to where a voter is from and how events of the campaign are unfolding.

Tracking the votes by where a voter lives shows that each candidate has a clear root of support in the geographic areas of the Palmetto state (i.e. Broadcast areas). This is reflective of how candidates are relying on their friends, neighbors, and reputation to get elected. However, when the ballots have been counted in past primaries a larger portion of the ballots have come from the counties in the Greenville TV market (28%), Charleston market (19%), and Florence (19%).

Candidate support across the state has shown the impact of different campaign strategies. U.S. Representative Ralph Norman is the preferred candidate of 40% of the South Carolina voters who live in Chester, Chesterfield, Lancaster, and York counties (Charlotte DMA). However, those counties have contributed about 8% of all ballots. Over in the Myrtle Beach/Florence Media Area voters typically cast one in five of all Republican primary ballots and Lt. Governor Evette (of Traveler’s Rest) is the strongest candidate among voters there (30%). Then in the center of the state

Although fewer ballots in a statewide Republican primary come from Columbia (15%), the voters who live in counties around the state capitol are likely to help Attorney General Alan Wilson (26%). That is nine points higher than the closest opponent (Mace, 17%).

In other areas of the state, voters are split across the different candidates vying to be the top state executive. Voters in the Upcountry, where most ballots will be cast, (28%, Greenville DMA) are split (Reddy 21%; Norman 16%; Evette 14%). Ralph Norman’s recent announcement of Adam Morgan, a former member of the State House and candidate for congress from Greenville, shows Norman’s interest in winning this region. That endorsement came after this poll, so the Greenville analysis cannot capture any effect from the announcement.

Further south, voters in the Lowcountry (19%, Charleston DMA) are also split (Mace 20%; Evette 17%; Wilson 17%). Voters from Aiken to Beaufort are narrowly split between Mace (24%) and Wilson (21%), which is notable because about as many ballots may be cast from these two regions as the counties in the larger Myrtle Beach-Florence media market.

Why Voters supported Republican candidates: effectiveness vs. who you agree with

The Citadel Poll asked voters to identify the reason they supported their favored candidate in the Republican primary. The 17% of Republican voters who supported Lt. Governor Pamela Evette were impressed by her success as lieutenant governor (40%) and felt she is focused on the issues they care about the most (38%). Attorney General Alan Wilson has attracted similar support (16%) among those who see him as an effective Attorney General (46%). An early frontrunner in this race, U.S. Representative Nancy Mace, still had a solid base of support (16%) because voters believed she is focused on the issues they care about the most. The survey also showed that the well-funded campaign of outsider Rom Reddy has caught the attention of voters across the state. Although his campaign has focused on his business credentials and political independence, the most frequent reason voters support him is because of the issue positions he has shared at debates and town hall meetings.

President Trump’s Late Endorsement in the SC Governor’s Race

The Citadel Poll offers insight into who voters think will win the primary. Leading up to the election, most voters believed Attorney General Alan Wilson (25%) or Lt. Governor Pamela Evette (23%) would win the GOP nomination. During this poll, Lt. Governor Pamela Evette received an endorsement from President Donald Trump and we can see a stark shift in how voters reacted. The short-term impact of the endorsement was seen in two trends by comparing 512 surveys of likely Republican voters before the endorsement to 78 surveys after the endorsement.

First, the percentage of Republican primary voters who through the gubernatorial primary would be a close election increased by 12% (61% before to 73% after). Second, Belief among likely Republican voters that Attorney General Wilson would win the primary fell by 7%. More voters did not state the Lieutenant Governor was going to win, rather more voters said they did not know who would win even as the election got closer. Overall, the effect of the endorsement bolstered voter interest in the election but since there was not a clear shift in voter preferences it is likely many voters are using this campaign event to reevaluate the candidates before they vote.

Frontrunners in the Senate Races & Democratic Primary for Governor

In the Senate races Annie Andrews is holding a 31-point lead among likely Democratic primary voters and incumbent Senator Lindsey Graham is holding a 10-point lead among likely Republican voters. This suggests that Annie Andrews may avoid a run-off in the primary, even though 36% of voters still do not know who they support. Support for Senator Graham in the poll was significant, but 18% of the likely voters still did not know who they would support. To avoid a run-off against Mark Lynch, Graham will have to persuade some of the late-deciders.

State Representative Jermaine Johnson holds a 15-point advantage over Billy Webster going into the last week of the election, based on the views of 427 likely Democratic primary voters.

About the Poll

The Citadel Poll is a public service initiative of the School of Humanities and Social Sciences.

Through presidential debates, the Symposium on Southern Politics, public lectures, and leadership opportunities The Citadel is a leading venue for discussing what is on the minds of voters in the region and across the country.

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News

Newly launched, The Citadel Poll will survey South Carolina voters each year 

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