SC Voters Look to Pass the Torch in the Midterms
October 28, 2026
The midterm elections in South Carolina have more statewide races than any other year. In this election, the state voters will choose who gets a full term in the U.S. Senate and they will pick a new governor. The results of our survey of 1,009 registered voters before the second week of early voting, shows that voters are still making up their minds on who they would support just days before the election.
In the U.S. Senate race, Senator Darline Graham has a 4% lead over Annie Andrews with one week left in the race to serve a full term, which is just outside of the margin of error when we account for how the sample differs from the population distribution in the state. The Senate contest is within the margin of error, if 2% of the voters write-in U.S. Representative Ralph Norman on the ballot as voters said they may do in this survey.
The state of the race is different in each corner of the state, as we look at the largest media markets (DMA). The election is close, because Andrews has been able to secure most of the independent voters who plan on voting in this election (45%), even though 34% would not say who they would support.
Candidate Preference by Designated Media Area
| Candidate | Charleston | Rock Hill | Columbia | Florence | Greenville | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrews | 47% | 37% | 36% | 38% | 37% | 35% |
| Graham | 34 | 44 | 38 | 47 | 44 | 41 |
| Whitener | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Hackett | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Norman (write-in) | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| Undecided | 16 | 10 | 21 | 12 | 12 | 18 |
The Senate campaign is hard to predict. A majority of voters have heard a lot (23%) or a great deal (32%) about the differences between Graham and Andrews during this campaign. Still, 14% of voters expect to vote in this election but truly do not know which candidate they will choose.
Both candidates have largely gathered their support. Graham voters say they support her because she is focused on the issues they care about the most (37%). There are also 26% of her supporters that want to see her carry-on Senator Lindsey Graham’s legacy. On the other side, 47% of Andrews supporters say that she is focused on the issues they care about the most.
Two in three voters think the Senate race will be a close election. Many voters have seen contrasting and negative television advertisements that point to candidate differences on policies. However, we find most voters regardless of partisanship (62%) believe the Republican nominee, Senator Darline Graham, will win.
President Donald Trump’s rally for Graham in Pendleton, SC on October 21 may be remembered as a turning point in this election. Andrews was only one point behind Graham prior to the visit (n=638). After the rally, Graham’s percentage was 7 points higher (n=252), creating a 10-point advantage across the state. This shift was geographically concentrated in the Greenville-Spartanburg-Asheville-Anderson DMA. Graham was ahead by 6% in the Upstate before the rally and that grew to a 17 point lead after.
The visit’s boost to campaigns impacted the Senate race, but not other elections. Voters favored Attorney General Wilson for governor by 11% before the rally and 11% after the rally, with no change among the same Upstate area.
Who will be the state’s new executive?
Four candidates are seeking to succeed Governor Henry McMaster, who is limited from serving another term. In contrast to the highly publicized Senate race, most voters have heard only a little (34%) or nothing at all (18%) about the differences between SC Representative Jermaine Johnson and SC Attorney General Alan Wilson. Wilson has an 11-point lead over Johnson (42-31), while one in four voters remain undecided.
As voters think about who the next executive should be, more voters are focused on the effectiveness and direction the candidate offers. Jermaine Johnson’s supporters were drawn to his emphasis on charting a new direction for the state (44%). Most of Alan Wilson’s supporters prefer him because he has been an effective Attorney General (42%). In this election, voters are split as to whether they expect the election to be close (37%) or not close (38%). However, regardless of who they plan to vote for, two in three voters expect Wilson to win.
Are candidates paying attention to new residents & long-term residents?
The prolonged population growth the state has experienced raises interesting questions, will these new South Carolinians vote? And will they vote any differently? The answer in this election is, yes.
New residents of South Carolina (moving as recently as 10 years ago) are 7% more likely to say they will vote in this midterm election than the longer-term residents. A clear caveat is that the long-term residents are still 70% of the likely voters.
The Democratic nominees, Andrews and Johnson, have looked to win these new voters. The poll shows that Andrews and Johnson have found a way to do this in a favorable political environment. The likely voters who moved to South Carolina less than five years ago largely prefer Andrews to Graham (50-34), while Johnson’s (34-32) lead with new residents over Wilson is within the margin of error. However, the trend flips with Graham leading with voters who moved here 5 to 10 years ago (50-32). Similarly, Wilson holds a large lead with the less recent arrivals (43-25). Right now, we see a clear distinction about when people moved to the state and the candidate they like the best.
The native South Carolinians, who have not lived elsewhere, are split in the Senate race between Graham (38%) and Andrews (38%). However, Alan Wilson has shown an ability to appeal to the native South Carolinians (44-24) which is consistent with his strategy in the Republican primaries.
The voting group that has remained the most supportive of the Republican nominees are those individuals who moved to South Carolina more than 10 years ago. Wilson has a 14% lead with these voters and Graham has a 7% lead with the long-term residents who relocated to the Palmetto state.
Affordability Remains an Issue
The Citadel Poll has tracked how registered voters are feeling about their household finances over time. At this moment we see that fewer South Carolinians are living comfortably than they were five months ago.
| Household Financial Situation | Oct 2026 | May 2026 | Oct 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Living comfortably | 45% | 48% | 40% |
| Just getting by | 39 | 38 | 42 |
| Struggling to make ends meet | 16 | 14 | 18 |
A clear concern for the candidates is that 56% of registered voters believe the impacts of inflation are worse in South Carolina than other states in the South.
The highest concentrations of those struggling to make ends meet are concentrated in the areas where the population growth is most pronounced; Charleston (20%), Columbia (18%), Greenville-Spartanburg (16%), and Rock Hill (16%).
Strong Opposition to Flock Cameras
Three in every five voters oppose the installation of automated license plate cameras in their local city. Only 6% of voters did not have an opinion on the issue, which elevates this the likelihood it will arise as an issue in local debates and when the South Carolina General Assembly meets again.
About the Poll
The Citadel Poll is a public service initiative of the School of Humanities and Social Sciences.
Through presidential debates, the Symposium on Southern Politics, public lectures, and leadership opportunities The Citadel is a leading venue for discussing what is on the minds of voters in the region and across the country.
News
Newly launched, The Citadel Poll will survey South Carolina voters each year
Contact Us
171 Moultrie Street
Charleston, SC 29409
United States
citadelpoll@citadel.edu
843-953-4481